Cover Story
special feature
From a cup of coffee.
What you can do to protect the future
The Coffee 2050 Problem
Coffee is an essential drink for many people. It is deeply rooted in our daily lives, whether it is a cup in the morning, a refreshing break from work or a café break with friends. However, there is a serious problem looming over the future of coffee. Known as the ‘coffee 2050 problem’, what do you know about this issue?
If things continue as they are, good coffee may no longer be readily available in twenty-odd years' time.
What is the 2050 problem for coffee?
There are predictions that coffee production could decline significantly by 2050. The main causes are climate change, pests and diseases, and changes in the farming environment. The combined effects of these factors could make it more difficult to grow coffee, leading to a serious shortage of supply.
Impacts of climate change
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns
Rising temperatures are reducing the number of areas suitable for coffee cultivation. Rising temperatures are a particular threat to Arabica coffee, which prefers the cooler climate of the highlands. Changes in precipitation patterns also have an impact, as extreme weather conditions make stable production more difficult.Specific impacts.
Arabica coffee is particularly sensitive to climate change, which can reduce quality and yields. For example, production declines are predicted in major producing countries such as Brazil and Ethiopia.
Increase in pests and diseases
Emergence of new pests and diseases
Global warming is making it easier for new pests and diseases to emerge. In addition, existing pests are also becoming more active and causing extensive damage to the coffee crop.
For example, pests such as rust*1 and coffee berry borer*2 are increasing, causing significant losses to growers. These pests are more likely to spread due to environmental changes caused by climate change.
1 Rust is a disease that attaches to the underside of leaves, extends its mycelium and erodes the leaf flesh, eventually losing its photosynthetic function and dying within two to three years.
2 The coffee berry borer is a pest of coffee native to Africa. It is now found in more than 70 countries, mainly in Latin America, and is recognised as the ‘most damaging’ pest.
Changes in the agricultural environment
Soil degradation and scarcity of water resourcesIntensive agriculture has led to soil degradation, making sustainable cultivation difficult. In addition, climate change is causing increasing scarcity of water resources, making irrigation more difficult in an increasing number of areas. This impact is particularly pronounced in arid regions.
Impact on the coffee industryEconomic impact
High coffee prices and short supply will have a significant impact on both consumers and producers.Consumers will pay higher prices and producers will face income insecurity.Impact on producing countriesThe economies and employment in developing countries that depend on the coffee industry will also be severely affected. For example, in major producing countries such as Ethiopia and Colombia, where the coffee industry is an important source of national income, the impact will be profound.
Sustainable solutions.
Innovations in agricultural technologyGenetic improvement and the development of resistant varieties can make coffee more resilient to climate change. This is expected to ensure production stability in the future.
Agroforestry.The introduction of forest farming methods (agroforestry) and the cultivation of coffee while preserving biodiversity are also effective. This promotes sustainable farming.
Sustainable farming practices.
It is important to aim for sustainable production by promoting fair trade and organic farming. This will both improve the livelihoods of producers and protect the environment.
What we can do.We, as consumers, can also act to protect the future of coffee. For example, we can choose Fairtrade and organic coffee, review our coffee consumption and reduce waste. It is also important to actively participate in and support environmental organisations and climate change action. In this way, you can contribute to environmental protection, not only for coffee, but for the planet as a whole.
Coffee's 2050 problem is a real threat to many people. But action by each and every one of us will be key to safeguarding coffee's future. This is one of the major problems facing not only coffee, but also the effects of global warming. Now is the time to take action to ensure sustainable coffee production and consumption.
Launch of Kamakura Brand Fairtrade Coffee
In order to inform many people about fair trade, including the 2050 coffee issue, Kokubu Shutoken Corporation, which sympathised with the activities of the Kamakura Ethical Lab, Mitsumoto Coffee Company, which has a factory in Kamakura, and the citizens of Kamakura collaborated to conduct a selection questionnaire for taste and packaging design. Following the opinions of many people, especially in Kamakura, we developed a Kamakura-branded fair trade coffee product. The new coffee is intended to support sustainable agriculture and contribute to improving the livelihoods of producers.
Furthermore, part of the proceeds will be donated to the Kamakura City Green Space Conservation Fund, contributing to the protection of the local environment. We invite you to try the Kamakura brand ‘Kamakura Roasted Coffee - Fairtrade Kamakura Blend’.The product is scheduled to go on sale on 28 August 2024 and will be available in supermarkets and other shops throughout Japan. Stay tuned.
Your cup of coffee will help protect the future of the planet, the future of coffee and the beautiful nature of Kamakura.